NBS: Y-o-y inflation in November 2024 expected to be 5.7 pct

BELGRADE - According to an Ipsos survey, the Serbian financial sector expects y-o-y inflation to be 5.7 pct in November 2024, which is a decline for a third consecutive month, since expectations from the previous, October survey stood at 5.9 pct, the National Bank of Serbia (NBS) said.

"Judging by the latest, December Bloomberg survey, financial sector expectations are on a downward path - anticipated one-year ahead inflation is 4.5 pct, i.e. it has entered the NBS target tolerance band for the first time since April 2022.

Short-term (one-year ahead) corporate expectations declined from 9.0 pct in October to 7.0 pct in November, which is the lowest level of inflation expectations this year," the central bank said in a statement.

"Two- and three-year ahead inflation expectations of both financial and corporate sector are lower than short-term expectations. In November, two-year ahead expectations of the financial sector were slightly higher than in October, measuring 4.2 pct (vs. 4.0 pct in October), while three-year ahead expectations stand at 3.5 pct (vs. 3.0 pct in October), meaning that medium-term inflation expectations for both periods continued to move within the NBS target tolerance band.

This signals monetary policy credibility and efficiency of the monetary policy transmission mechanism through the expectations channel. Medium-term corporate expectations stayed unchanged from the October survey at 6.0 pct for two years ahead and 5.0 pct for three years ahead," it also said.